Packers vs Giants 2012

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Expect a close game with the Green Bay Packers winning 51% of simulations, and the New York Giants 49% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Green Bay Packers commit fewer turnovers in 51% of simulations and they go on to win 72% when they take care of the ball.

The New York Giants wins 72% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Aaron Rodgers is averaging 297 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (40% chance) then he helps his team win 59%. Eli Manning is averaging 273 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (32% chance) then he helps his team win 56%.

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