Wednesday, October 31, 2012

10 day weather forecast in nyc

A tropical wave was moving westward through the eastern Caribbean Sea on October 19, 2012. It had an extended low pressure area, and conditions were expected to gradually become more favorable for development. On October 20, the system became better organized, and the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) assessed a high potential for it to become a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.[8] By the next day, the associated convection, or thunderstorms, had become minimal, although barometric pressure in the area remained low, which favored development. The thunderstorms gradually increased, while the system slowed and became nearly stationary over the western Caribbean. At 1500 UTC on October 22, the NHC initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen about 320 mi (515 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica. This was based on surface observations and satellite imagery, which indicated the system had developed enough organized convection to be classified.


Satellite image of Hurricane Sandy near Jamaica landfall
When the tropical depression formed, it was in an area of weak steering currents south of a ridge extending eastward from the Gulf of Mexico. Low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures were conducive to strengthening and rapid deepening. Late on October 22, a Hurricane Hunters flight observed winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) in a rainband, which prompted NHC to upgrade the depression to Tropical Storm Sandy.[13] Outflow increased, while moist atmosphere helped the convection organize further. NHC noted that "remaining nearly stationary over the warm waters of southwestern Caribbean Sea is never a good sign for this time of year." Still, the cloud pattern initially remained largely the same.[15] Early on October 24, an eye began developing. By that time, Sandy was moving steadily northward, drawn by a trough approaching from the northwest.[16] At 11:00 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) on October 24, the NHC upgraded Sandy to hurricane status after the Hurricane Hunters observed flight-level winds of 99 mph (159 km/h). At the time, Sandy was about 65 mi (105 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica.


Evening photo of Sandy on October 28
At about 3:00 p.m. EDT (1900 UTC) on October 24, Sandy made landfall near Kingston with winds of about 80 mph (130 km/h).Just offshore Cuba, Sandy rapidly intensified into a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale with 110 mph (175 km/h) winds. Shortly thereafter at 1:25 a.m. EDT (0525 UTC), the hurricane struck Cuba just west of Santiago de Cuba.At landfall, Sandy had a well-defined eye of over 23 mi (37 km) in diameter, and flight-level winds reached 135 mph (216 km/h). While over land, the structure deteriorated and the eye was no longer visible. After Sandy exited Cuba, dry air and increasing shear restricted the outflow and caused the structure to become disorganized.A mid-level low over Florida turned the hurricane toward the north-northwest.By early on October 26, most of the convection was sheared to the north of the center, and the size of the storm increased greatly. By the next day, the NHC remarked that Sandy was "showing characteristics of a hybrid cyclone... like an occluded frontal low." However, the system maintained a warm thermal core, and despite strong 60 mph (95 km/h) wind shear, the hurricane continued to develop thunderstorms due to good divergence from a nearby trough; the same trough turned Sandy toward the northeast. On October 27, Sandy briefly weakened to a tropical storm, after dry air became fully ingested into the mid- and upper-level circulations. Later that day, however, wind reports from the Hurricane Hunters indicated that Sandy tropical wave -intensified into a hurricane.

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10 day weather forecast in nyc

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